AFL Odds 2025: Best Bookmakers & Value Bets for Aussie Rules Football

Australian Rules Football (AFL) is one of the most exciting sports to bet on, combining high-scoring matches, unpredictable outcomes, and a wide variety of markets. If you want to get the most out of your AFL betting, finding the best odds and understanding implied probabilities is essential. Small differences in odds can compound over a season, so shopping around for value is critical.

In this article, we’ll explore the current AFL odds from top bookmakers, calculate their implied probabilities, and show how to spot the bets that truly offer value.

Why Compare AFL Odds?

Odds are not just numbers — they reflect the bookmaker’s view of the probability of an outcome. By comparing odds across multiple bookmakers, you can ensure that your bets are giving you the highest possible return.

For example, consider betting $100:

• Pinnacle offers 2.31 odds → payout $231 if you win.
• Unibet offers 2.17 odds → payout $217 if you win.

That’s a $14 difference for the same bet, just by comparing bookmakers. Over a season, using the best odds can significantly improve your profitability.

AFL Odds Comparison: Top Bookmakers

Here’s a snapshot of current AFL odds and their implied probabilities (calculated using Implied Probability=1Decimal Odds×100\text{Implied Probability} = \frac{1}{\text{Decimal Odds}} \times 100Implied Probability=Decimal Odds1​×100):

Understanding Implied Probability

Implied probability tells you how likely the bookmaker thinks an outcome is. For instance:

• Pinnacle odds 2.31 → 43.29% probability
• Unibet odds 2.17 → 46.08% probability

If you believe a team has a 45% chance of winning, Pinnacle’s odds represent a positive expected value (EV), while Unibet’s odds are slightly worse for the same bet.

Key takeaway: the lower the implied probability relative to your own assessment, the better the value.

Finding Value Bets in AFL

1. Compared across bookmakers: Pinnacle, Everygame, and Betfair often offer the highest odds, while Betsson and Nordic Bet lag behind.
2. Look for discrepancies: Even a 2–3% difference in implied probability can be profitable over multiple bets.
3. Bet on underdogs selectively: AFL favorites often have shorter odds; the real value can be in backing underdogs whose implied probabilities are too low.
4. Use your knowledge: Injuries, form, venue, and weather all affect actual probabilities. Compare these against bookmaker odds to identify positive EV bets.

Case Study: Pinnacle vs Unibet

Suppose you think the team has a 45% chance of winning:

• Pinnacle (2.31) → implied probability 43.29% → positive EV: your estimated chance is higher than the bookmaker's.
• Unibet (2.17) → implied probability 46.08% → negative EV: bookmaker overestimates the team’s chances, offering less value.

Placing your bet on Pinnacle here is statistically the smarter move.

Tips for Maximising AFL Betting Value

• Open accounts with multiple bookmakers: allows you to always pick the best odds.
• Monitor line movements: odds shift with news and betting volume; early bets may have better value.
• Consider margin markets: AFL offers “win by X points” markets which sometimes provide better odds than simple match winners.
• Factor in promotions: boosted odds, risk-free bets, and early payout offers can improve expected value.
• Live/in-play betting: momentum swings in AFL can create attractive in-play opportunities.

Recommended Bookmakers for AFL

Based on the current odds and implied probabilities:

• Best Overall Odds: Pinnacle (2.31, 43.29%)
• Strong Alternatives: Everygame (2.25, 44.44%), Betfair (2.28, 43.86%)
• Consistently Solid: Unibet, LeoVegas, Casumo, Virgin Bet (2.17 range)
• Lower Value: Betsson, Nordic Bet (2.05 range)

By comparing multiple platforms, you can ensure you never settle for suboptimal odds, and consistently maximise your returns.

Conclusion

AFL betting is not just about picking the winner; it’s about finding value in the odds. By using odds comparison tools like HouseOfOdds, calculating implied probabilities, and spotting positive EV bets, you can improve your betting strategy and long-term profitability.

The takeaway is simple:

• Always shop for the best odds.
• Understand implied probability versus your own assessment.
• Focus on value bets, not just favorites.

Whether you’re a casual punter or a serious bettor, mastering these concepts will help you make smarter AFL wagers and get the maximum return on every bet.

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