Goodman Ahead in Zogby Poll

Oscar Goodman, the normally loquacious mayor of Las Vegas, turns into a near mute anytime he's asked if he wants to run for governor.

"I'm the happiest mayor in the world," Goodman said recently when asked. "And that's all I have to announce."

But some close to him have said the mayor is seriously considering a run, and the latest poll suggests he's the best hope for the Democrats.

A Zogby International poll released Tuesday found Goodman was the only Democrat to top Rep. Jim Gibbons, R-Nev., the Republican front-runner and early favorite in the 2006 governor's race.

The poll, conducted online and over the phone in mid-September, asked 500 Nevadans whom they would vote for.

Goodman had a 41.4 to 40.1 lead over Gibbons. The poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

Goodman had a two-point lead over Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt and a six-point lead over Sen. Bob Beers, R-Las Vegas.

The poll showed the other Democrats trailing Gibbons -- Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson trailed 41.1 to 35.4, and Sen. Dina Titus, D-Las Vegas, was behind 44.4 to 35.9.

Goodman could not be reached for comment Tuesday. He was out of the office for Rosh Hashana, and calls to his home were not answered.

A source close to the mayor said Goodman is "definitely considering" running for governor, but says he "goes back and forth."

Political consultant Kent Oram said when he spoke with Goodman, "he said 49 percent of me says, 'Gee, I don't think so and 51 percent of me says let's do it.' "

Zogby pollsters said, should Goodman run, "he would likely beat any of the current Republicans eyeing the governor's mansion."

Gibson and Titus both trailed Hunt, by three and four points respectively.

The pollsters said Gibson, who has yet to announce his candidacy, was the Democrats' best hope should Goodman not run -- 11 percent of the Republicans polled took Gibson over Gibbons.

A Gibson spokesman called the results "encouraging," but said the campaign was focusing on the primary.

Titus' campaign manager, Dave Barnhart, called the poll "bogus" and an "outright fraud," deriding the way it was conducted using the Internet.

Zogby officials have defended their method of conducting the poll.

Robert Uithoven, Gibbons' campaign manager, said he was pleased that the poll showed the congressman was the front-runner, but he noted that if Goodman decided to run, it "would bring a new dynamic to the race."

Goodman comes with some political baggage that would typically make an opposing campaign drool -- there was a finding against him by the state Ethics Commission, he's been a spokesman for a gin company, he told fourth graders his hobby is "drinking" and then defended the remark by saying he was just telling the truth, and he recently served as a celebrity photographer for Playboy.

But Goodman enjoys tremendous popularity.

"Despite all these things that might be questionable, he remains in some ways the Teflon mayor," said Dan Hart, a Democratic campaign consultant not yet tied to any candidate. "People tend to be forgiving of him because he's a character."

Hart said that when Goodman first announced he would run for mayor, "he admitted he was a former mob lawyer and some thought that would be the kiss of death."

Goodman won his first election in 1999 with more than 63 percent of the vote, and then, with no strong opponents running against him in 2003, was re-elected with more than 85 percent of the vote.

UNLV assistant professor of political science Dave Damore said Goodman would be a strong candidate: He has good name recognition and would be able to raise money.

While critics point to Goodman's "style," that doesn't appear so serious when "comparing that to local officials taking bribes from strip clubs," Damore said.

In a statewide campaign, Goodman would face distractions because of his actions, UNR political science professor Erik Herzik said.

"He's going to be answering why he took pictures for Playboy and not talking about education policy," he said.

But Damore said, "some people see a lot of themselves in him," and that can be significant in a campaign.

Republican campaign veteran Sig Rogich, a senior consultant to the Gibbons camp, said Goodman is a viable candidate.

"He has a higher popularity rating than the governor," Rogich said. "He just has to ask himself if he wants to be governor."